1.0.7 Crafting Explained: Approximate Chance of Getting Epic Rolls By Simulating 10 million Crafted Amulets.
Earlier today the devs actually responded to one of my questions (Mandlebarb#1598)--the first one under the "Crafting" section. Though they were thorough and explanatory in their response, they did not offer any hard numbers or additional insight into how random affixes get applied to items. So, time for me to step in!
Here are examples of previous work so that anyone new can follow the process:
Now I've applied these principles to crafting in 1.0.7. I simulated 10,000,000 crafted amulets and used the results to approximate the probability of getting certain valuable combinations of affixes. It is, as always, important to note the following:
- This is only an approximation of how rolls work, with no official knowledge obtained from Blizzard or any other inside source. I may be wrong, but I have done testing which indicates that these numbers are pretty accurate.
- Some crafted items in 1.0.7 have the chance to be standalone BiS, meaning that their ceiling is higher thananything you can find from farming. This alone will make them pretty appealing to high level players.
- Time actually becomes a pretty big issue now. It takes a really long time to craft enough amulets to expect elite rolls. That being said, it would take a really really long time to expect to farm these same elite items.
- The whole right-hand side with the projected costs and rolls needed to hit are for DPS stats and AR. Thereare other valuable stats that aren't included (Life %, Vit, LoH, and Regen and Armor to a lesser degree), which means that the chance of getting a good amulet isn't quite as bad as I calculated. However, most people are looking for beefy DPS stats out of their ammies, so that's what I focused on.
- Remember that you need to add 200-230 of a primary stat to those rolls! That makes them much more valuable than they seem when you first look at the list.
Without further ado, here's the spreadsheet:
Edit: I feel like a little perspective is necessary at this point since a lot of people are (rightly) noticing the rather large numbers. If you go to the AH, however, and simply punch in a few examples from that "3 Valuable Top Half Rolls" category while adding 200 as the minimum of whatever primary stat you choose, you'll notice that 600mil can actually be fairly competitive with AH pricing on those amulets.
That being said, you'll need to factor in commodity prices as well, which may effectively double (or more, eventually) the overall cost of crafting. Personally, I think Blizzard should reduce the gold cost of crafting by at least a factor of 10, if not more. Let the commodity price dictate the crafting costs so that everything is liquid about crafting prices. 100k gold is not a lot for one craft, but as the quality of gear continues to increase that small fee is going to become a real barrier for people who would otherwise like to craft but realize that it's not cost effective.